On The View From Egypt, Part Six, Or, Let's Review Where We Are

We’re a week into the Egyptian uprising now, and it’s time to reassess what has taken place so far and what might come next.

We know a few things, and we don’t know a lot—and from what we can tell, the folks on the ground are also not sure what might happen. That said, we do know enough to begin to figure out the right questions to be asking.

As was true Friday, things are moving fast, so let’s jump right in.

You know, David, there, there is a joke that went around Egypt for many years about Mubarak that he was on his death bed and an Egyptian delegation came to see him of the people. The nurse came in, said, "Mr. President, the people are here to say goodbye." And Mubarak said, "Oh, really? Where are they going?" So, you know, Egyptians have been telling this joke for a long time. It isn't funny anymore.

--Thomas Friedman, on “Meet the Press”, January 30, 2011

So let’s start with what we know: Friday and Saturday were indeed epic days for Egyptians as they hit the streets in such massive numbers that the Mubarak Government has appointed (NDP insider, chief of the Intelligence service, and “chief rendition manager”) Omar Suleiman as his first Vice-President in 30 years.

It was an attempt to try the “meet the new boss, same as the old boss” strategy, and it looks like it did not go well.

The wrath of the crowds were most particularly directed at the police who have been robbing them blind for decades (not to mention all the “tenderizing” and other forms of political repression we’ve talked about before), and police stations across the country were first stormed, then looted, then burned.

In response...the police disappeared, and they have not been seen on the streets since. (That may not be entirely true, however, which we’ll get to as we go along.)

A “Fort Apache, the Bronx” moment occurred as a standoff took place at the Interior Ministry (the headquarters of those same hated police), and it may be crucial to understanding how this entire crisis plays out:

Crowds were swarming the place, trying to get inside, presumably to loot and burn, and the police were shooting back, with rubber-coated bullets and clouds of tear gas.

The Army then arrived, with armored personnel carriers, and took up positions that seemed to be intended to protect...the protesters.

There are accounts that report that the Army attempted to negotiate a solution, which failed, after which police again began opening fire on the crowd.

The headquarters of President Mubarak’s National Democratic Party (NDP) was burned.

Vandalism occurred at the National Museum.

Since then the Army has taken up positions across the country (the Museum included), and they seem to be protecting Government buildings—but they are not attempting to enforce curfews or to stop the protests in any other way.

Something else the Army has not been doing is acting as a police force: looting is taking place, and it’s affecting homes and businesses alike. Communities have been responding by defending themselves, which is obviously going to create its own problems.

All this is already impacting daily life: the banks are closed, which means you better have cash, but many stores are closed, which means cash is of somewhat limited value. It is exceedingly difficult to move around the city as ad hoc roadblocks controlled by neighborhood residents go up around town

Along the way the Government tried to shut down information flow by disabling “device telecommunications” and broadband Internet access...even to the point of blocking access to the Egyptian Constitution’s web site (this according to the El Badeel newspaper)...and people have responded by downloading certain programs that might provide workarounds.

That modem you never use has suddenly become vastly more important as dialup and DSL services provide what access they can through the phone lines. (This obviously has its limits, and it’s hard to imagine how long it could take to upload video with a 56k connection.)

It’s like something out of “Casablanca” as tons of people try to get on whatever flight out of town might be available; numerous countries are or soon will be flying out their own citizens on charter aircraft, and the same is true for various private entities who maintain staff in the country.

Mohamed El Baradei is emerging as a potential interim leader; we’ll talk more about that in a minute.

The police are now trying to return to the streets.

As Donald Rumsfeld would say, there are “known unknowns”:

The police, as we said, are trying to return...but considering that they were the target of much of the anger in the first place, who knows how that’s going to work out?

That question becomes more interesting when you consider that there are many who believe that the police themselves have been “arranging” some portion of the looting and vandalism, either themselves, personally, or by releasing prisoners into the community who will do the looting themselves.

The Muslim Brotherhood, who represent the interests of something like a quarter to a third of all Egyptians, will be a part of the political conversation going forward (absent some incredible crackdown), and that could be a moderating or a highly negative influence: it is possible that the Brotherhood could restrain those who are far more radical—or the far more radical could be the Brotherhood themselves.

You should also know that a "split decision" is possible: there has been a movement by the Mubarak Government over the years to allow religious groups to have some say over certain elements of "civil law" that used to be enforced in a strictly secular manner; this to prevent the very type of unrest that we're seeing today.

There could be an outcome that makes that arrangement permanent--and considering how much religious diversity there is in Egypt today, that could be a source of future conflict as well.

The Suez Canal is important inside and outside of Egypt, and obviously we cannot say with certainty whether its operations will be affected. There have been threats made against the Canal by Bedouin in the Sinai—but the Army would be expected to be very aggressive in defending the facility, and attacking the Army is probably going to be much different than attacking the local police.

The Army is itself associated with some great big unknowns:

--will they side with the demonstrators and against the current Government?

--will they assist the police in reimposing their particular brand of “law and order”—or will they stop the police from abusing the citizens?

--will they (or the police) be unable to reestablish any form of law and order in certain neighborhoods, now that “community policing” has taken over?

Another big unknown: how does the business community deal with all this? Some (“...same as the old boss...”) may see the changes as detrimental; others may find great opportunity in a new Egypt.

Keeping in mind how we have related to Egypt over the years, will Egypt be less friendly to Israel and the United States after this? (My guess, and it’s only a guess, is that virtually any outcome is going to lead to a “yes” answer.)

How far beyond Egypt does this spread—and could events in Yemen or Lebanon or Jordan push Egypt in a way not considered likely today?

The last unknown is one I don’t hear others talking about: what happens if the NDP tries to stay in power without any Mubaraks as President?

“...this is a...a corpse in a...open oaken oblong coffin, silky lining...it’s a dead body, Patsy.”

“Yeah, but is it art, Eddie?”

--“Pasty” and “Edwina”, from the television show “Absolutely Fabulous”

To finish out today’s story, let’s just toss out a final thought about what we’ve seen so far—and then let’s break all the rules and bury the lead, by ending the story with some “new” news:

As the crisis in Egypt unfolded CNN had 24-hour “all hands on deck” coverage with multiple reporters in the streets of Cairo and Alexandria, Fox News was on the air with news, commentary, and some odd “happy talk”, Al Jazeera had the pictures everyone else was showing on their coverage—and MSNBC had some very special episodes of “Lockup” and “Predator Raw: The Unseen Tapes” (iced tea and cookies, anyone?) to supplement Alex Witt and the hourly Richard Engle stand ups.

(I’m a big fan, Mr. Engle, but you can’t be expected to do it all by yourself...)

Is it possible that MSNBC suffered a “credibility uprising” as damaging as Mubarak’s this weekend? And how much of that, if any, can be spelled C-O-M-C-A-S-T?

And what do you think are the odds that Jon Stewart, Aasif Mandvi, and Jason Jones will notice any of this on Monday?

Now for the “new” news: there has been a lot of talk about whether anyone outside of the Muslim Brotherhood could muster an organization that could govern, and it appears that Mohamed El Baradei is doing exactly that: Wa’el Nawara is reporting from his “weekite” blog that a ten member committee has gathered around Dr. El Baradei that includes:

Dr Baltagi from the Muslim Brotherhood, Ayman Nour from El Ghad Party, Dr Osama El Ghazaly Harb from DFP, George Ishak and Dr. Abdel Gileel Mostafa (NAC), Hamden Sabahi from Karama, and Abou El Ezz El Haariri representing the leftists.

They intend to start by negotiating with the Army or the Government (or both) to move to a unity Government first, then elections—and if I get my Egyptian politics right, that’s a pretty inclusive group.

As we said Friday, however, coalitions have a history of breaking down, and there is no way to know, today, how things will work out for this group.

So there you go: lots of knowns, big giant unknowns, and a network that has to figure out if they’re going to become a real 24-hour news network—or if they can find a better news scheduleler, so that less of the news takes place on the days they take off.

Today is likely to be another important day—in fact, there’s likely to be a bunch of them in a row—and if there is one thing I’m willing to predict it’s that whatever we’re seeing today, it won’t be what we see in a week, which could be either incredibly inspiring...or incredibly depressing.

Stay tuned to Egypt, folks—and to the rest of the neighborhood, as well—because big things are afoot, and if they come to fruition it could happen very, very fast.

On The View From Egypt, Part Five, Or, The Emergency Is Here

It has been a couple of years since we first started writing about Egypt; at that time we did a series of stories that described how the country’s Constitution is designed to ensure that the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) remains the ruling party, how corruption and torture and rape are part of the justice system, how there’s a looming Presidential succession crisis, and how we better pay attention, because one day all of this was going to blow up into a national emergency, with the potential for disastrous consequences that ripple all the way from Turkey to Morocco to Pakistan.

And now...that day has arrived.

After protests that led to a change of government (sort of) in Tunisia, rioting is spreading across Egypt, quickly, the ISI (Egypt’s internal security police) is out grabbing citizens and doing what they do (we’ll talk more about that later), and the question of Presidential succession, which many people thought was headed in one direction, may now be headed off to a place that outside observers might not have previously considered.

Lucky for you, I have some reach inside Egypt, and we’re going to get a peek inside the story that you might not have seen otherwise.

“My grandfather knew the exact time of the exact day of the exact year that he would die.”

“Wow, what an evolved soul! How did it come to him?”

“The judge told him.”

--From “Plato and a Platypus Walk Into A Bar...”, Thomas Cathcart and Daniel Klein

Time is short, and this story is moving fast, so here’s the short and sweet version of the background that you “need to know”: since the Republic of Egypt was founded (in 1956), only the NDP has held power. Hosni Mubarak, the fourth and current President, has ruled since 1981, when he took over after the assassination of Anwar Sadat.

He’s thinking about succession plans more and more these days (for the NDP, Government corruption is a business, and everyone with a hand in the till wants the business to keep running smoothly), and if he had his wish his son, Gamal, would step into the job—and it looks like Gamal is trying to do just that: he makes public appearances where he looks Presidential, and it is reported by our State Department that he is involved in the formulation of legislation and Government policy.

Because the Egyptian Constitution’s famous Article 76 is designed to ensure that the NDP retains its stranglehold on power, there is no single opposition figure outside the NDP who commands enough public support and party infrastructure to really mount an electoral challenge.

(Ensure, you say? The Constitution’s intent is to “protect national unity”; to that end it requires all political parties to be licensed by the Government...which, of course, is run by the NDP

Political parties are barred from forming coalitions amongst themselves, and all candidates for Parliament or President must be approved by the Government before they can appear on the ballot—and should the authorities choose, that permission can be withdrawn during an election campaign.

A party can be ordered to disband. The Government can also, at any time, order parties not to accept any funds from any sources.)

The last candidate allowed to run against Mubarak in any serious way was Ayman Nour, of the El Ghad Party, in 2005; for his trouble he first received about 8% of the vote in a heavily rigged Egyptian election and then, soon after, a nice long sentence in a heavily guarded Egyptian prison. (He’s since been released.)

The ISI, acting in their capacity as one of the guardians of State Security, are recognized worldwide for their willingness to go “above and beyond” to make sure Egyptians stay unified in their support of the NDP; their motivational tactics have included everything from attempting to take over an opposition party to organizing a well-timed riot to raping bloggers the Government doesn’t like all the way up to “disappearing” and killing those who get too far out of line.

(The USA has “leveraged” Egypt’s expertise in torture throughout the “War on Terror”, and the place has been a popular destination for those being “renditioned”.)

Here’s an example: The Guardian (the UK newspaper) has an amazing audio recording on their website that was made by one of their reporters who was grabbed by riot police in Cairo during a street demonstration in the past day or so (along with about 50 others) and driven around in a police truck for several hours. The idea was to slam them into each other and the metal walls of the truck so as to “tenderize” them a bit, they were then driven out into the desert, presumably with the intent of making them think they were about to be killed.

Among those thrown in the truck was Ayman Nour’s son...which adds another dimension to how the intimidation can work, doesn’t it?

Egypt is officially a secular nation, but many Egyptians would like to see an Islamic Republic; their interests were represented by the Muslim Brotherhood until the Party was officially banned.

Today there is an underground alliance of politicians, some of whom serve in Parliament, that represent the same interests—which scares the NDP to no end.

(Other noteworthy religious sects within the population include Sufis, Copts, and Orthodox Christians, and there have been tensions between the various groups that have recently led to numerous incidents of violence.)

Poverty, unemployment, concerns over the potential withdrawal of certain government subsidies, and issues related to food security have also rocked the country over the past few years.

The Army has always served (as is the case in Turkey) as a guardian of secular interests and as a guarantor of “stability”. All of the Republic’s Presidents have served in the Army, and Gamal Mubarak, if he were to advance to the Presidency, would be the first to break that rule.

The other thing you need to know is that Tunisia, which is right next door, is going through the exact same thing: they have also had one-party rule forever, and popular discontent with government corruption, combined with an unemployment rate that makes Detroit look like a city “on the...grow!”, has led to so much rioting and changing of Governments that the country actually had three heads of state in 24 hours.

Of course, when you’ve always had one party rule and any political opposition is aggressively stamped out, that means any change in Government is likely to be a “meet the new boss, same as the old boss” kind of a deal—and that’s precisely what’s happening in Tunisia.

(If you want to explore the Egyptian parts of this story in a lot more detail, have a look here, here, here, and here.)

History lesson done, it’s time to consider the present: just like in Tunisia, the rioting has begun.

There are reports of demonstrations involving thousands of protesters in Cairo, Alexandria, and in the Suez; among those reports are details that include the burning and blockading of police stations, mass detainments, and the firing of live bullets and rocket propelled grenades on the crowds. There are also reports of numerous deaths among the demonstrators.

There are reports that “Muslims and Christians together” are out demonstrating against the Government in Cairo, and it’s Bedouins who are protesting out in the Sinai. All of this is much different than the typical protests that have occurred in the past, which seem to have been of a more secular nature.

Prisoners at the Fayoum Prison (many of whom are there without trial or charges filed; many of whom have been tortured) are engaging in hunger strikes and security officials are concerned that the strikes could spread across all the country’s prisons, according to the El Badeel newspaper.

Former International Atomic Energy Agency head Mohamed El Baradei is attempting to mobilize a “National Assembly for Change”...and today the group issued a statement in Arabic that appears to describe the opposition’s efforts to achieve power as an “intifada” and seems to demand the “renunciation of President Mubarak’s rule”.

El Baradei himself is in the country; The Times of India quotes him as saying: "Mubarak has served the country for 30 years and it is about time for him to retire...”, which is an enormously brave thing to say inside Egypt, considering that he could either end up as the next leader of a unity Government or “tenderized” by the security services.

Today, January 28th, is intended to be what’s described as another “Day of Wrath”; Islamic weekends also begin on Fridays, so the demonstrations could become enormously large, and it’s unknown what could happen.

If the Mubaraks had to go, there are a few others beside El Baradei that might be in line to take the job:

--First, let’s assume a scenario like Tunisia’s, where Mubarak leaves but the NDP stays, and the “same as the old boss” deal plays out; the candidate to watch in that situation might be General Omar Suleiman (notice I said “General”...unlike Gamal Mubarak). He’s the head of the Egyptian General Intelligence Service (EGIS), and I think it’s fair to say that the US Government views him as, shall we say, cooperative.

Another man to watch would be Minister of Trade and Industry Rachid Mohamed Rachid—but he got himself caught up in some serious political trouble last year when the Nation’s wheat imports were threatened (50% of Egypt’s wheat is imported), and that may come back to haunt him now.

--If the NDP were to lose control of the situation, you could have someone like Ayman Nour or Saad Eddin Ibrahim step in, so the question becomes whether the National Assembly for Change coalition can either hold together for the long term or form a “caretaker” Government that might include several opposition leaders with elections to follow shortly thereafter.

Nour’s El Ghad Party and many others appear to be cooperating with the National Assembly for Change, at least for now—but the history of coalitions often involves the rapid dissolution of the group after victory is achieved, and there’s no way to know if that might happen down the road.

--Could the Muslim Brotherhood establish a theocracy, or something like one—and would they want to?

That is the big question...and I honestly do not know the answer. However, they are currently involved in the National Assembly for Change, and a representative of the Brotherhood (who, of course, doesn’t “officially” exist) was quoted as saying that joining the movement:

“..does not mean that we support for Dr. ElBaradei, as a candidate for president.”

One thing I do know: the Army has stepped in to maintain political order, more than once, and the Muslim Brotherhood would have to consider how far they could go before they caused a clash that would be bad for everyone.

They also would have to deal with the “jobs and economy” and systemic corruption issues, as any secular government would, otherwise any potential victory might be a short-lived one.

--Speaking of the Army stepping in...that could indeed happen, and a military Government would not be that surprising an outcome if things were to really start getting crazy and basic order were to collapse in a big big way.

The close relationship between the Mubarak government and the US security apparatus is something that is not well received at home, and we should expect that any new President not named Gamal would display a less warm public image toward the United States—even if they act differently in private.

So that’s what I know so far, and I’ll try to find out more as I can—but the big story today is that today might look something like Iran last June, with lots of sound and fury and repression to follow—or it might look like Tunisia, where “government du jour” is the order of the day.

Various Internet services are being blocked in Egypt, but here’s a Twitter page to check during the day...and if there’s more to tell, we’ll come back and tell it.

OK, there’s more already: The Times of India is reporting that Gamal Mubarak took his family and left for London Wednesday morning—and now it’s looking like the troubles might be spreading to Lebanon, where a coalition Government with Hezbollah as one of the partners...despite their losing a 2009 election...has the country’s Sunnis out in the streets.

On Why We Blog, Or, America's 244 Greatest Words

Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth, upon this continent, a new nation, conceived in liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that "all men are created equal"

Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived, and so dedicated, can long endure. We are met on a great battle field of that war. We have come to dedicate a portion of it, as a final resting place for those who died here, that the nation might live. This we may, in all propriety do. But, in a larger sense, we can not dedicate -- we can not consecrate -- we can not hallow, this ground -- The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here, have hallowed it, far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here; while it can never forget what they did here.

It is rather for us, the living, we here be dedicated to the great task remaining before us -- that, from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they here, gave the last full measure of devotion -- that we here highly resolve these dead shall not have died in vain; that the nation, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people by the people for the people, shall not perish from the earth.

--the nicolay draft of the gettysburg address; courtesy library of congress

Government by the People, for the People, and of the People.

The kind of government where you grab it with your own two hands and run the darn thing.

For the first time in my life, and probably yours too, and maybe for the first time in history, you can speak to the world-and the world listens.

Just ask Ann Coulter.

Or George Allen.

Or even better, ask Darcy Burner.

A complete political unknown with no name recognition, Ms. Burner ran for Congress in ‘06 in Washington’s 8th, a traditionally Republican district previously represented for 12 years by Jennifer Dunn, who was succeeded after the ’04 cycle by Dave Reichert, the former King County Sheriff who gained his name recognition from directing the hunt for the Green River Killer.

In a 51-48% outcome that must have left Republican hearts feeling as stressed as Dick Cheney’s, Burner lost.

And now she comes before us, as more and more elected officials are choosing to do, for the announcement of her intent to run again.

But that’s not the point.

The point is: look at the response.

Ordinary citizens are offering direct advice to a candidate who is reacting in real time.

As I say, this is hardly unique.

And that is my bigger point.

We live in a time where the real potential of the People to “be dedicated to the great task remaining before us” is at hand.

Those who seek to represent us, more and more, seek our wisdom, and our support, by coming to us directly. They are finding success in those efforts, and when the People give direction to the Candidate, or the Elected Representative, the dream of Government by the People is, for that moment, realized.

The greatness of the vision set forth by Lincoln, realized in a way he never could have imagined.

And with the potential to be repeated again and again, until this is the way politicians “talk” to their constituencies as a matter of natural practice.

There are those who benefit from a disengaged People; and in fighting them we, today, are engaged in efforts to end a great civil war.

That victory is not yet achieved, but one year ago the world was so much different. At last the People have found our voice, and our leaders seem...scared, suddenly.

And if our leaders are scared, what about those who lead them?

It’s as if the professional political control community-the Microsoft of politics, if you will (sorry, Darcy Burner, can we still be friends?), is suddenly facing a robust open-source challenge for which it was completely unprepared.

It’s not just “message” consultants looking over their shoulders-here’s an example of highly professional open-source graphic consulting.

Focus groups? Will blog communities become the new open-source focus group, or will pollsters start focus group blogs? A nod is as good as a wink to a blind horse, if you ask me; and the only difference seems to be the degree of targeting needed and the desire to restrict the results.

Experts? If a candidate wanted to learn about Iraq, they might read Marshall Adame over at BlueNC, who has personally been doing the work of rebuilding that country; and I suspect he would be happy to offer advice.

For that matter, a candidate needing pretty good free advice need only post a page to Kos, or TPMCafe, or any of the entire community of communities that can offer direct communication from the electorate at large-and good advice will be found-quickly, too. There is a “wheat from chaff” element to the process, granted, but paying for advice has the same problem.

Fundraising?  Connecting to your favorite candidate is more direct than ever and eventually I suspect entire online communities will begin to donate as a group, creating “open-source PACs” that are controlled by the electorate more than the “money aggregators” of today.

The development of “open-source” campaigning may lower the barriers to entry for candidates. It also creates the chance for candidates to reach across the nation for assistance that might never have been available before.

There are candidates who are willingly adapting to this new experiment in direct Democracy, John Edwards, at this stage of the game, being the prominent example so far in the ’08 cycle.

Darcy Burner, on the other hand, represents a new development-the candidate who seeks the “open-source” solution from day one of her campaign. Who openly asks the People to be a part of governing again.

She is not the first, I am sure, to seek the People. Nor will she be the last.

And that’s why, every day, with every candidate who seeks us out, we get a little closer to the dream expressed at Gettysburg. The dream that we will truly be our own Government, a dream that seems to have gotten away from us recently, but all of a sudden, is starting to feel close enough to touch.

If Abraham Lincoln is watching this, I bet he’s proud.