On The View From Egypt, Part Six, Or, Let's Review Where We Are

We’re a week into the Egyptian uprising now, and it’s time to reassess what has taken place so far and what might come next.

We know a few things, and we don’t know a lot—and from what we can tell, the folks on the ground are also not sure what might happen. That said, we do know enough to begin to figure out the right questions to be asking.

As was true Friday, things are moving fast, so let’s jump right in.

You know, David, there, there is a joke that went around Egypt for many years about Mubarak that he was on his death bed and an Egyptian delegation came to see him of the people. The nurse came in, said, "Mr. President, the people are here to say goodbye." And Mubarak said, "Oh, really? Where are they going?" So, you know, Egyptians have been telling this joke for a long time. It isn't funny anymore.

--Thomas Friedman, on “Meet the Press”, January 30, 2011

So let’s start with what we know: Friday and Saturday were indeed epic days for Egyptians as they hit the streets in such massive numbers that the Mubarak Government has appointed (NDP insider, chief of the Intelligence service, and “chief rendition manager”) Omar Suleiman as his first Vice-President in 30 years.

It was an attempt to try the “meet the new boss, same as the old boss” strategy, and it looks like it did not go well.

The wrath of the crowds were most particularly directed at the police who have been robbing them blind for decades (not to mention all the “tenderizing” and other forms of political repression we’ve talked about before), and police stations across the country were first stormed, then looted, then burned.

In response...the police disappeared, and they have not been seen on the streets since. (That may not be entirely true, however, which we’ll get to as we go along.)

A “Fort Apache, the Bronx” moment occurred as a standoff took place at the Interior Ministry (the headquarters of those same hated police), and it may be crucial to understanding how this entire crisis plays out:

Crowds were swarming the place, trying to get inside, presumably to loot and burn, and the police were shooting back, with rubber-coated bullets and clouds of tear gas.

The Army then arrived, with armored personnel carriers, and took up positions that seemed to be intended to protect...the protesters.

There are accounts that report that the Army attempted to negotiate a solution, which failed, after which police again began opening fire on the crowd.

The headquarters of President Mubarak’s National Democratic Party (NDP) was burned.

Vandalism occurred at the National Museum.

Since then the Army has taken up positions across the country (the Museum included), and they seem to be protecting Government buildings—but they are not attempting to enforce curfews or to stop the protests in any other way.

Something else the Army has not been doing is acting as a police force: looting is taking place, and it’s affecting homes and businesses alike. Communities have been responding by defending themselves, which is obviously going to create its own problems.

All this is already impacting daily life: the banks are closed, which means you better have cash, but many stores are closed, which means cash is of somewhat limited value. It is exceedingly difficult to move around the city as ad hoc roadblocks controlled by neighborhood residents go up around town

Along the way the Government tried to shut down information flow by disabling “device telecommunications” and broadband Internet access...even to the point of blocking access to the Egyptian Constitution’s web site (this according to the El Badeel newspaper)...and people have responded by downloading certain programs that might provide workarounds.

That modem you never use has suddenly become vastly more important as dialup and DSL services provide what access they can through the phone lines. (This obviously has its limits, and it’s hard to imagine how long it could take to upload video with a 56k connection.)

It’s like something out of “Casablanca” as tons of people try to get on whatever flight out of town might be available; numerous countries are or soon will be flying out their own citizens on charter aircraft, and the same is true for various private entities who maintain staff in the country.

Mohamed El Baradei is emerging as a potential interim leader; we’ll talk more about that in a minute.

The police are now trying to return to the streets.

As Donald Rumsfeld would say, there are “known unknowns”:

The police, as we said, are trying to return...but considering that they were the target of much of the anger in the first place, who knows how that’s going to work out?

That question becomes more interesting when you consider that there are many who believe that the police themselves have been “arranging” some portion of the looting and vandalism, either themselves, personally, or by releasing prisoners into the community who will do the looting themselves.

The Muslim Brotherhood, who represent the interests of something like a quarter to a third of all Egyptians, will be a part of the political conversation going forward (absent some incredible crackdown), and that could be a moderating or a highly negative influence: it is possible that the Brotherhood could restrain those who are far more radical—or the far more radical could be the Brotherhood themselves.

You should also know that a "split decision" is possible: there has been a movement by the Mubarak Government over the years to allow religious groups to have some say over certain elements of "civil law" that used to be enforced in a strictly secular manner; this to prevent the very type of unrest that we're seeing today.

There could be an outcome that makes that arrangement permanent--and considering how much religious diversity there is in Egypt today, that could be a source of future conflict as well.

The Suez Canal is important inside and outside of Egypt, and obviously we cannot say with certainty whether its operations will be affected. There have been threats made against the Canal by Bedouin in the Sinai—but the Army would be expected to be very aggressive in defending the facility, and attacking the Army is probably going to be much different than attacking the local police.

The Army is itself associated with some great big unknowns:

--will they side with the demonstrators and against the current Government?

--will they assist the police in reimposing their particular brand of “law and order”—or will they stop the police from abusing the citizens?

--will they (or the police) be unable to reestablish any form of law and order in certain neighborhoods, now that “community policing” has taken over?

Another big unknown: how does the business community deal with all this? Some (“...same as the old boss...”) may see the changes as detrimental; others may find great opportunity in a new Egypt.

Keeping in mind how we have related to Egypt over the years, will Egypt be less friendly to Israel and the United States after this? (My guess, and it’s only a guess, is that virtually any outcome is going to lead to a “yes” answer.)

How far beyond Egypt does this spread—and could events in Yemen or Lebanon or Jordan push Egypt in a way not considered likely today?

The last unknown is one I don’t hear others talking about: what happens if the NDP tries to stay in power without any Mubaraks as President?

“...this is a...a corpse in a...open oaken oblong coffin, silky lining...it’s a dead body, Patsy.”

“Yeah, but is it art, Eddie?”

--“Pasty” and “Edwina”, from the television show “Absolutely Fabulous”

To finish out today’s story, let’s just toss out a final thought about what we’ve seen so far—and then let’s break all the rules and bury the lead, by ending the story with some “new” news:

As the crisis in Egypt unfolded CNN had 24-hour “all hands on deck” coverage with multiple reporters in the streets of Cairo and Alexandria, Fox News was on the air with news, commentary, and some odd “happy talk”, Al Jazeera had the pictures everyone else was showing on their coverage—and MSNBC had some very special episodes of “Lockup” and “Predator Raw: The Unseen Tapes” (iced tea and cookies, anyone?) to supplement Alex Witt and the hourly Richard Engle stand ups.

(I’m a big fan, Mr. Engle, but you can’t be expected to do it all by yourself...)

Is it possible that MSNBC suffered a “credibility uprising” as damaging as Mubarak’s this weekend? And how much of that, if any, can be spelled C-O-M-C-A-S-T?

And what do you think are the odds that Jon Stewart, Aasif Mandvi, and Jason Jones will notice any of this on Monday?

Now for the “new” news: there has been a lot of talk about whether anyone outside of the Muslim Brotherhood could muster an organization that could govern, and it appears that Mohamed El Baradei is doing exactly that: Wa’el Nawara is reporting from his “weekite” blog that a ten member committee has gathered around Dr. El Baradei that includes:

Dr Baltagi from the Muslim Brotherhood, Ayman Nour from El Ghad Party, Dr Osama El Ghazaly Harb from DFP, George Ishak and Dr. Abdel Gileel Mostafa (NAC), Hamden Sabahi from Karama, and Abou El Ezz El Haariri representing the leftists.

They intend to start by negotiating with the Army or the Government (or both) to move to a unity Government first, then elections—and if I get my Egyptian politics right, that’s a pretty inclusive group.

As we said Friday, however, coalitions have a history of breaking down, and there is no way to know, today, how things will work out for this group.

So there you go: lots of knowns, big giant unknowns, and a network that has to figure out if they’re going to become a real 24-hour news network—or if they can find a better news scheduleler, so that less of the news takes place on the days they take off.

Today is likely to be another important day—in fact, there’s likely to be a bunch of them in a row—and if there is one thing I’m willing to predict it’s that whatever we’re seeing today, it won’t be what we see in a week, which could be either incredibly inspiring...or incredibly depressing.

Stay tuned to Egypt, folks—and to the rest of the neighborhood, as well—because big things are afoot, and if they come to fruition it could happen very, very fast.

On The View From Egypt, Part Five, Or, The Emergency Is Here

It has been a couple of years since we first started writing about Egypt; at that time we did a series of stories that described how the country’s Constitution is designed to ensure that the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) remains the ruling party, how corruption and torture and rape are part of the justice system, how there’s a looming Presidential succession crisis, and how we better pay attention, because one day all of this was going to blow up into a national emergency, with the potential for disastrous consequences that ripple all the way from Turkey to Morocco to Pakistan.

And now...that day has arrived.

After protests that led to a change of government (sort of) in Tunisia, rioting is spreading across Egypt, quickly, the ISI (Egypt’s internal security police) is out grabbing citizens and doing what they do (we’ll talk more about that later), and the question of Presidential succession, which many people thought was headed in one direction, may now be headed off to a place that outside observers might not have previously considered.

Lucky for you, I have some reach inside Egypt, and we’re going to get a peek inside the story that you might not have seen otherwise.

“My grandfather knew the exact time of the exact day of the exact year that he would die.”

“Wow, what an evolved soul! How did it come to him?”

“The judge told him.”

--From “Plato and a Platypus Walk Into A Bar...”, Thomas Cathcart and Daniel Klein

Time is short, and this story is moving fast, so here’s the short and sweet version of the background that you “need to know”: since the Republic of Egypt was founded (in 1956), only the NDP has held power. Hosni Mubarak, the fourth and current President, has ruled since 1981, when he took over after the assassination of Anwar Sadat.

He’s thinking about succession plans more and more these days (for the NDP, Government corruption is a business, and everyone with a hand in the till wants the business to keep running smoothly), and if he had his wish his son, Gamal, would step into the job—and it looks like Gamal is trying to do just that: he makes public appearances where he looks Presidential, and it is reported by our State Department that he is involved in the formulation of legislation and Government policy.

Because the Egyptian Constitution’s famous Article 76 is designed to ensure that the NDP retains its stranglehold on power, there is no single opposition figure outside the NDP who commands enough public support and party infrastructure to really mount an electoral challenge.

(Ensure, you say? The Constitution’s intent is to “protect national unity”; to that end it requires all political parties to be licensed by the Government...which, of course, is run by the NDP

Political parties are barred from forming coalitions amongst themselves, and all candidates for Parliament or President must be approved by the Government before they can appear on the ballot—and should the authorities choose, that permission can be withdrawn during an election campaign.

A party can be ordered to disband. The Government can also, at any time, order parties not to accept any funds from any sources.)

The last candidate allowed to run against Mubarak in any serious way was Ayman Nour, of the El Ghad Party, in 2005; for his trouble he first received about 8% of the vote in a heavily rigged Egyptian election and then, soon after, a nice long sentence in a heavily guarded Egyptian prison. (He’s since been released.)

The ISI, acting in their capacity as one of the guardians of State Security, are recognized worldwide for their willingness to go “above and beyond” to make sure Egyptians stay unified in their support of the NDP; their motivational tactics have included everything from attempting to take over an opposition party to organizing a well-timed riot to raping bloggers the Government doesn’t like all the way up to “disappearing” and killing those who get too far out of line.

(The USA has “leveraged” Egypt’s expertise in torture throughout the “War on Terror”, and the place has been a popular destination for those being “renditioned”.)

Here’s an example: The Guardian (the UK newspaper) has an amazing audio recording on their website that was made by one of their reporters who was grabbed by riot police in Cairo during a street demonstration in the past day or so (along with about 50 others) and driven around in a police truck for several hours. The idea was to slam them into each other and the metal walls of the truck so as to “tenderize” them a bit, they were then driven out into the desert, presumably with the intent of making them think they were about to be killed.

Among those thrown in the truck was Ayman Nour’s son...which adds another dimension to how the intimidation can work, doesn’t it?

Egypt is officially a secular nation, but many Egyptians would like to see an Islamic Republic; their interests were represented by the Muslim Brotherhood until the Party was officially banned.

Today there is an underground alliance of politicians, some of whom serve in Parliament, that represent the same interests—which scares the NDP to no end.

(Other noteworthy religious sects within the population include Sufis, Copts, and Orthodox Christians, and there have been tensions between the various groups that have recently led to numerous incidents of violence.)

Poverty, unemployment, concerns over the potential withdrawal of certain government subsidies, and issues related to food security have also rocked the country over the past few years.

The Army has always served (as is the case in Turkey) as a guardian of secular interests and as a guarantor of “stability”. All of the Republic’s Presidents have served in the Army, and Gamal Mubarak, if he were to advance to the Presidency, would be the first to break that rule.

The other thing you need to know is that Tunisia, which is right next door, is going through the exact same thing: they have also had one-party rule forever, and popular discontent with government corruption, combined with an unemployment rate that makes Detroit look like a city “on the...grow!”, has led to so much rioting and changing of Governments that the country actually had three heads of state in 24 hours.

Of course, when you’ve always had one party rule and any political opposition is aggressively stamped out, that means any change in Government is likely to be a “meet the new boss, same as the old boss” kind of a deal—and that’s precisely what’s happening in Tunisia.

(If you want to explore the Egyptian parts of this story in a lot more detail, have a look here, here, here, and here.)

History lesson done, it’s time to consider the present: just like in Tunisia, the rioting has begun.

There are reports of demonstrations involving thousands of protesters in Cairo, Alexandria, and in the Suez; among those reports are details that include the burning and blockading of police stations, mass detainments, and the firing of live bullets and rocket propelled grenades on the crowds. There are also reports of numerous deaths among the demonstrators.

There are reports that “Muslims and Christians together” are out demonstrating against the Government in Cairo, and it’s Bedouins who are protesting out in the Sinai. All of this is much different than the typical protests that have occurred in the past, which seem to have been of a more secular nature.

Prisoners at the Fayoum Prison (many of whom are there without trial or charges filed; many of whom have been tortured) are engaging in hunger strikes and security officials are concerned that the strikes could spread across all the country’s prisons, according to the El Badeel newspaper.

Former International Atomic Energy Agency head Mohamed El Baradei is attempting to mobilize a “National Assembly for Change”...and today the group issued a statement in Arabic that appears to describe the opposition’s efforts to achieve power as an “intifada” and seems to demand the “renunciation of President Mubarak’s rule”.

El Baradei himself is in the country; The Times of India quotes him as saying: "Mubarak has served the country for 30 years and it is about time for him to retire...”, which is an enormously brave thing to say inside Egypt, considering that he could either end up as the next leader of a unity Government or “tenderized” by the security services.

Today, January 28th, is intended to be what’s described as another “Day of Wrath”; Islamic weekends also begin on Fridays, so the demonstrations could become enormously large, and it’s unknown what could happen.

If the Mubaraks had to go, there are a few others beside El Baradei that might be in line to take the job:

--First, let’s assume a scenario like Tunisia’s, where Mubarak leaves but the NDP stays, and the “same as the old boss” deal plays out; the candidate to watch in that situation might be General Omar Suleiman (notice I said “General”...unlike Gamal Mubarak). He’s the head of the Egyptian General Intelligence Service (EGIS), and I think it’s fair to say that the US Government views him as, shall we say, cooperative.

Another man to watch would be Minister of Trade and Industry Rachid Mohamed Rachid—but he got himself caught up in some serious political trouble last year when the Nation’s wheat imports were threatened (50% of Egypt’s wheat is imported), and that may come back to haunt him now.

--If the NDP were to lose control of the situation, you could have someone like Ayman Nour or Saad Eddin Ibrahim step in, so the question becomes whether the National Assembly for Change coalition can either hold together for the long term or form a “caretaker” Government that might include several opposition leaders with elections to follow shortly thereafter.

Nour’s El Ghad Party and many others appear to be cooperating with the National Assembly for Change, at least for now—but the history of coalitions often involves the rapid dissolution of the group after victory is achieved, and there’s no way to know if that might happen down the road.

--Could the Muslim Brotherhood establish a theocracy, or something like one—and would they want to?

That is the big question...and I honestly do not know the answer. However, they are currently involved in the National Assembly for Change, and a representative of the Brotherhood (who, of course, doesn’t “officially” exist) was quoted as saying that joining the movement:

“..does not mean that we support for Dr. ElBaradei, as a candidate for president.”

One thing I do know: the Army has stepped in to maintain political order, more than once, and the Muslim Brotherhood would have to consider how far they could go before they caused a clash that would be bad for everyone.

They also would have to deal with the “jobs and economy” and systemic corruption issues, as any secular government would, otherwise any potential victory might be a short-lived one.

--Speaking of the Army stepping in...that could indeed happen, and a military Government would not be that surprising an outcome if things were to really start getting crazy and basic order were to collapse in a big big way.

The close relationship between the Mubarak government and the US security apparatus is something that is not well received at home, and we should expect that any new President not named Gamal would display a less warm public image toward the United States—even if they act differently in private.

So that’s what I know so far, and I’ll try to find out more as I can—but the big story today is that today might look something like Iran last June, with lots of sound and fury and repression to follow—or it might look like Tunisia, where “government du jour” is the order of the day.

Various Internet services are being blocked in Egypt, but here’s a Twitter page to check during the day...and if there’s more to tell, we’ll come back and tell it.

OK, there’s more already: The Times of India is reporting that Gamal Mubarak took his family and left for London Wednesday morning—and now it’s looking like the troubles might be spreading to Lebanon, where a coalition Government with Hezbollah as one of the partners...despite their losing a 2009 election...has the country’s Sunnis out in the streets.

On Email Gay Bashing, Or, ENDA's Already Getting Ugly

It wasn’t but a couple of days ago that we had a conversation about The Fear and the emails that are used to spread it, and I figured with that out of the way we had dealt with the topic, and that we’d move on to new things.

Well, we would be moving on, Gentle Reader, if it wasn’t for the fact that an email came in today that was so ugly, so disturbing, and so indicative of what we are about to see as the battle over the Employment Non-Discrimination Act (ENDA) begins to heat up (ENDA being possibly the next “big contentious thing” that this Administration hopes to accomplish), that I had to interrupt my story schedule to bring it to your attention.

“Horse sense is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people.”

--W.C. Fields

For those not yet aware, let’s do a bit of background: there have been a series of civil rights laws passed over the years, providing protections related to the right to vote, providing for equality in housing and employment based on race, or religion, or ethnicity, or gender, and providing protections for the disabled.

What is missing is a law protecting those who are gay or those who might view gender in a way that’s different than what the most fundamentalist church in town views as “normal” from discrimination in housing and employment; the idea is that ENDA (officially known as H.R. 3017, Employment Non-Discrimination Act of 2009) is intended to fill that gap.

The House Education and Labor Committee has held hearings on the bill, but that’s as far as it's gone so far. Now that the pressure is easing to get health care reform through Congress, there are people who would like to advance ENDA from a bill to a law...and I’m one of ‘em.

So, naturally, when an email came into my inbox asking “Do You Support The Homosexual Agenda?” I thought to myself: “why, yes, I do”, and opened the darn thing.

As it turns out, the sender, “Public Advocate of the United States” (which, I assume, is not to be confused with “The Advocate”), is not a supporter of Teh Gay Agenda...but that’s not really a surprise, is it?

In fact, the group is against...well, pretty much everything, including:

“...The National Endowment of the Arts and the federal funding and endorsement of pornography and obscenity as legitimate forms of art;

The mainstream media's promotion and glorification of drug abuse, teenage sex, gangs, atheism, homosexuality and other immoral behavior and beliefs;

The passage of hate crimes and thought control legislation that creates inequality in our state and federal legal systems...”

All of which they present with no apparent sense of the contradictions inherent in their own positions...which is also not really a surprise.

Anyway, according to the email...

“The Radical Homosexuals claim you and other pro-family Americans actually now support same-sex marriage, special job preferences for homosexuals and promotion of the homosexual lifestyle in schools...”

First off (and I had to do some research to confirm this), The Radical Homosexuals are not a band, which is too bad, because that would be one sweet name to put on a marquee.

Secondly, Angry Conservative Fundraising Guy, the country is split, almost 60/40, in favor of civil unions, this according to Pew...and when it comes to actual marriage, Pew counts it at 53% against, 39% for...which means The Radical Homosexuals are more correct in their assertions than Angry Conservative Fundraising Guy might like.

But let’s move on:

“...You see, the Radical Homosexuals are storming through Washington demanding passage of their agenda.

And with the passage of Thought Control last year, they say NOW is the time to push their perverse "life-style" on every man, women and child in America.

And they insist YOU actually support them.

The Homosexual Lobby played a major role in electing Obama and the majorities he enjoys in both houses of Congress.

I can only begin to imagine all the damage the Radical Homosexuals will do with their allies controlling the House of Representatives, the Senate and the White House.

As the President of Public Advocate of the U.S., I've devoted twenty-seven years to battling the radical homosexuals in Washington.

Backed by Hollywood celebrities, the media and millions of your tax dollars, the Radical Homosexuals have many Congressmen quivering with fear -- and they have a Radical Homosexual-friendly majority in control of Congress...”

(A quick word regarding emphasis: throughout this story, where emphasis occurs, it's as it was presented in the original, except that for technical reasons I had to change underlined words to italics.)

Storming?
Thought Control?
A Quivering Majority of the Members of Congress?

And that’s only what he can begin to imagine:

“...Frankly if you really do support the radical Homosexual Agenda -- or if you just no longer care enough to stand up for the family -- insiders in Congress say the entire Homosexual Agenda could pass in a matter of months.

*** Special job rights for homosexuals and lesbians. Businesses may have to adopt hiring quotas to protect themselves from lawsuits. Every homosexual fired or not hired becomes a potential federal civil rights lawsuit.

Radical homosexuals will terrorize day care centers, hospitals, churches and private schools. Traditional moral values will be shattered by federal law.

*** Same-sex marriages and adoptions. Wedding-gown clad men smooching before some left-wing clergy or state official is just the beginning.

You'll see men hand-in-hand skipping down to adoption centers to "pick out" a little boy for themselves.

*** Homosexual advocacy in schools. Your children or grandchildren will be taught homosexuality is moral, natural and good. High school children will learn perverted sex acts as part of "safe sex" education.

With condoms already handed out in many schools, Radical Homosexuals will have little trouble adopting today's "if it feels good do it" sex-ed curriculum to their agenda.

And to add insult to injury, lobbyists for the Homosexual Agenda are paid off with your tax dollars!

That's right, radical homosexual groups like the Gay-Lesbian Task Force and ACT-UP receive millions from the government.

Hundreds of millions of dollars flow from taxpayers to homosexual activists through funding for homosexual "art," so-called AIDS-awareness programs, and research grants...”

OK...so...at this point I need you to sit back down and take a deep breath, because it’s about to get a whole lot weirder.

I do not want you drinking anything while you read this next passage.
I don’t want you eating, either.

There are a few of you who may...oh, how should I put this...it’s possible that you may have some doubts about your own mental health.

To paraphrase comedian Lewis Black: if you go to an International House of Pancakes and you have “body issues”, you will inevitably feel better about yourself after the visit; this because there is always someone there who is at least 400 pounds heavier than you will ever weigh, ever, in your entire life.

The next portion of this email represents the International House of Mental Health, and there’s someone there 400 times crazier than you...and it’s this guy:

“...One stormy night I drove to a mailshop hidden deep in a nearly deserted stand of warehouses. I'd heard something was up and wanted to see for myself.

As I rounded the final turn my eyes nearly popped. Tractor-trailers pulled up to loading docks, cars and vans everywhere and long-haired, earring-pierced men scurrying around running forklifts, inserters and huge printing presses.

Trembling with worry I went inside. It was worse than I ever imagined.

Row after row of boxes bulging with pro-homosexual petitions lined the walls, stacked to the ceiling.

My mind reeled as I realized hundreds, maybe thousands, more boxes were already loaded on the tractor-trailers. And still more petitions were flying off the press.

Suddenly a dark-haired man screeched, "Delgaudio what are you doing here?" Dozens of men began moving toward me. I'd been recognized.

As I retreated to my car, the man chortled, "This time Delgaudio we can't lose."

Driving away, my eyes filled with tears as I realized he might be right. This time the Radical Homosexuals could win.

You see, even though homosexuals are just 1% of the population, if every one sent a petition to Congress it would generate a tidal wave of two or three million petitions or more.

Hundreds of thousands of pro-homosexual petitions will soon flood Congress , and my friends in Congress tell me there's virtually nothing on Capitol Hill from the tens of millions of Americans like you who oppose the radical Homosexual Agenda and the Gay Bill of Special Rights.

I made up my mind that night to write to you and as many other patriotic Americans as possible. To stop the Radical Homosexuals and protect traditional marriage there must be an immediate outpouring from folks like you....”

I need to interrupt for a quick second to ask a question: is it just me, or is the only difference between that story and a bad gay porn film that there’s nobody knocking at the door saying: “here’s the pizza...and here’s the pepperoni”?

“...Homosexual activists mock me in the halls of Congress. They say it's too late because Americans like you don't care enough to help, especially with the Democrats in control of Congress and the White House...”

Hey, Angry Conservative Fundraising Guy: just because someone mocks you in the hall, it doesn’t mean they’re some kind of homosexual activist.

They could be mental health activists, for example, or activists promoting better education...and, of course, it’s always possible they’re from the Netherlands.

Now not all the news here is bad:

“...If you won't help, I'm afraid there is little more I can do.

But the fact is, even if every person responds it won't be enough to counter all the radical homosexuals are doing.

And not everyone will respond. Some are cowed by how pro-family Americans are portrayed on TV. Others will count on someone else to fight the fight and carry the load. I don't believe you are like that...”

Just a real quick little bit of advice for the author of this piece, if I may be so bold.

Context matters, as those who used the word “Teabag” just a bit too freely discovered last spring, much to our delight, and when you’re busy stirring up The Fear Of The Radical Homosexual, I would be careful how I throw around terms like “carry the load”.

Next time, Angry Conservative Fundraising Guy, consider hiring a panel of 13-year-old boys who like Beavis and Butthead DVDs for a focus group before you hit the “Send” button and this sort of thing might not happen again.

The rest of this is a great big fundraiser which includes a series of links to what the sender calls a “Morality Survey”, but what I call either a push-poll or a handy one-page checklist of the arguments you can expect to hear over the next few months.

Now I think we’ve all seen enough of this for today, but here’s what I want you to take away from our conversation:

ENDA will be used as a tool to continue spreading hate in the run-up to this year’s elections...and really, really, really creepy people will be trying to scare you using really, really, really turgid (and I do mean turgid) prose.

The imaging will be ugly, with the fears of pedophilia and crossdressing and things being rammed down throats likely to all play starring roles in the Conserva-theater that’s soon to come.

I also expect to see more “outings”, á la Karl Rove’s usual practice—even against other Republicans, which has already apparently happened in this cycle, in the Illinois Senate Republican primary.

“...Stop imagining, unravel the truth and ask: “just who is it happening to?”

Everything that the passenger do, the driver experience, too

So if humanity is one then we all get burned when it’s hell that we’re traveling through...”

--From the song “The Travelers”, by Brother Ali.

There is no reason for us to blow this one.

The Conservative craziness that’s coming may become so extreme that even the Republicans no longer want any part of these people, but I wouldn’t count on it.

What I would count on is that this is the kind of fight we want to be having—as long as we’re out there having it.

Talk to your friends, talk to those people in line at the espresso stand, and (here’s one for the Captain in all of us), maybe even talk to the attractive individual working out next to you at the gym. Make them understand what this election is really going to be about, how desperate the other side is, and why we can’t afford to let them win.

The Radical HomoFearoPhobians are already hard at work, so get out there and do the same.

Unless, of course, you’d prefer another summer of really, really, awful Teabagging.

On Tradition, Or, Same-Sex Marriage, Seen Through A Telescope

Dangerous Things are happening in America these days, we are told, and the once-innocent citizens of Iowa and Vermont have already been exposed to the hazard...and now it looks as though the contagion might spread to States across New England.

But lucky for us, our friends on the Right are here again to save to save us from...(insert horror film music here)...

...The Gay.

The Gay, it turns out, want the opportunity to marry.

Among other complaints, our friends on the Right feel this will destroy religious tradition, which will ultimately destroy first Christianity, then the Nation. Therefore, religious tradition must be protected at all costs.

Well as it turns out, there are some people from our past who know a few things about religious traditions and how they distort reality—and today, we’ll examine the lessons they have to teach us.

The sun also ariseth, and the sun goeth down, and hasteth to his place where he arose.

--“The King James Bible”, Ecclesiastes 1:5

“...I wish, my dear Kepler, that we could have a good laugh together at the extraordinary stupidity of the mob. What do you think of the foremost philosophers of this University? In spite of my oft-repeated efforts and invitations, they have refused, with the obstinacy of a glutted adder, to look at the planets or Moon or my telescope.”

--“Through which the satellites of Jupiter were visible”, Galileo Galilei

“The proposition that the sun is in the center of the world and immovable from its place is absurd, philosophically false, and formally heretical; because it is expressly contrary to Holy Scriptures.”

--From the Catholic Church’s indictment of Galileo Galilei, 1633

So you get up every day and look up at the sky, and it’s obvious that the sun starts out over here...and at the end of the day it ends up over there.

Aristotle and Ptolemy figured it all out: each planet was placed on its own “sphere”, the earth in the center, and everything rotating around it; each planet (and the sun) inside the other, with the stars on the outside, in a Celestial Sphere”...all of this resembling Russian “Matryoshka” dolls.

And it’s no surprise that this interpretation of the motion of planets and the sun became not just “common sense”, but the official position of the Roman Catholic Church. After all, it was in the Bible, it was something you could see every day, and as the Greeks would have told you, it was logically “beautiful”—and who could want better proof than that?

To make a long story short, a Polish-born Church Canon named Nicolas Copernicus did. In 1543, near the end of his life, he released the book “De revolutionibus orbium coelestium” ("On the Revolutions of the Heavenly Spheres"), which suggested that all the planets, including the Earth, actually orbit the Sun.

It took another 40 years before someone would challenge Dogma on this point in a “threatening” way, but by 1584 Giordano Bruno’s “The Ash Wednesday Supper” was considered challenging enough to earn him the Heretic’s Fork...just before he was burned alive on the order of the Church.

By 1616 Galileo Galilei was being warned by the Catholic Church to stop talking about what he was seeing through his telescopes; a moon that was not a perfect sphere and the viewing of the phases of Venus being just two of his problematic observations.

Of course, the real reason all this was so problematic was because there were those in the Church who felt that the Word of God was to be interpreted literally...which meant that anyone who challenged either the text of the Bible or Church Dogma in any way had to be both factually wrong...and an enemy of the Faith.

Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?

--Groucho Marx, from the movie “Duck Soup”

Despite the warning, Galileo wouldn’t let it go. He kept observing, and he kept writing, which led to his attempt, in 1632, to obtain a license to publish the “Dialogue Concerning the Two Chief World Systems”...which led to his being hauled before the Inquisition...which led, in June of 1633, to him forswearing any of his previous beliefs, presumably to avoid the Heretic’s Fork himself.

The Church was able to hold all this together for another half-century—but Isaac Newton essentially “won the argument” with the publication of his three editions of the “Philosophiae Naturalis Principia Mathematica” from 1686 to 1742.

Many of you will recall that the Catholic Church was in fact destroyed by this chink in the armor of Biblical literalism, with the Church actually ceasing operations in 1802.

Obviously, I’m kidding—but the fact that nothing terrible happened hasn’t stopped any number of religious leaders in this country (and their followers, for that matter) from claiming that allowing same-sex marriages will have the same impact on faith in America today.

Which brings us to the moral of today’s story: the next time someone tells you that same-sex marriages will destroy religious traditions...that the world as we know it will come to a horrible end...and that anyone with any “common sense” can see that for themselves...tell ‘em to go get a telescope and get over it.

On The View From Egypt, Part Two, Or, If You Can't Beat 'Em, Lock 'Em Up

Joe the Biden famously warned us that the new President will be tested by a foreign policy challenge--and most of us assumed that challenge would come from somewhere like Pakistan, Afghanistan...or Russia.

New developments in the Middle East are suggesting that the challenge might come from an entirely different direction.

It’s quite a story we’ve been telling--and today’s installment involves massive electoral manipulation, intimidation, imprisonment... and a recanting witness who dies in his jail cell.

Hop on board the international train, Gentle Reader, and we’ll see what we can learn about a country that is hardly an enemy...that is, in fact, such an ally that they have been willing to torture for us.

As the title notes, this is Part Two of a larger story, so let’s recap:

The Arab Republic of Egypt has been ruled by various versions of one political party more or less forever. That political party is today known as the National Democratic Party (NDP); and at its head is Egypt’s President (since 1981), Hosni Mubarak.

Egypt’s Constitution is written so as to ensure the perpetual dominance of the NDP. For example, the Government is allowed to license political parties...and may revoke that license if a Party violates the law.

Egypt’s Constitution says that “national unity” is the principle to which politics in the Republic shall adhere, which means any political party that advocates any change in the way the NDP is running things is potentially guilty of a violation of law.

The recap complete, let’s move on to new business.

There are other political groups in Egypt besides the NDP, but the opposition is kept very tightly controlled.

One opposition group that exists, but really doesn’t is Al-Ikhwan Al-Muslimeen (in English, the Muslim Brotherhood).

The group has been officially banned in Egypt, but individuals “unofficially” supporting the Brotherhood have run successfully for Parliament. (In 2005, the unofficial Brotherhood candidates won 20% of Parliamentary seats.)

It is said that Mr. Mubarak allows the presence of the Brotherhood, partly to convince Americans that he and the NDP represent the only option other than Radical Islamism...and partly because his own citizens support elements of the Brotherhood’s platform.

Not unlike other Islamist political organizations, the Brotherhood also provides social services in ways the Government does not, which has also strongly connected the group to Egyptian citizens.

Some report that the Brotherhood is associated with extremists, others report that the Brotherhood has in recent decades chosen a moderate path, seeking to impose Shari’a Law through elections and other political means. It is likely that both statements are, to some degree, correct.

Partly because the Government has tolerated the Brotherhood--and partly because the Brotherhood has become powerful enough to demand it--Islamists have gained authority as de facto cultural rulemakers; which, ironically, has led to the Brotherhood acquiring the very political influence Mr. Mubarak’s Government had hoped to avoid giving away.

In an attempt to reduce that influence, there have been various crackdowns on the group....meaning that from time to time the Mubahath el-Dawla (Egyptian State Security) “rounds up the usual suspects” for a bit of intimidation, beating, and torture...with jail time applied as needed.

Other means are also used: as an example, virtually the entire slate of candidates that hoped to run as “Independent” candidates (but were widely perceived as being associated with the Brotherhood) were disqualified by the Government, with only 20 being allowed to run for the 52,000 positions available in the April 2008 elections. (These were the same candidates that had won 20% of the seats in Parliament, and it was expected that they would also do well in the local elections.)

The Brotherhood, despite the best efforts of the Government, is not the only opposition.

There have been a variety of efforts over the years to mount other “reform” candidacies; and today Egypt’s most successful reformer outside the Brotherhood is Ayman Nour.

Of course, in Egyptian politics, success is relative.

Nour, an attorney by trade, was elected to Parliament, but his first major success came just three months after he formed the El-Ghad (Tomorrow) Party in an effort to put himself in contention for Mr. Mubarak’s job in the 2005 Presidential election...when he was stripped of his Parliamentary immunity, arrested, tossed into prison, and charged with conspiring to forge some of the signatures that were on his nominating petitions.

Additional success came in the form of the Party’s newspaper being banned the day before it was scheduled to hit the newsstands.

In the subsequent trial, monitored by Human Rights Watch, the State was able to present co-defendants who admitted their own culpability in the forging of signatures, and who then named Nour as the group’s ringleader. Nour denied having ever met five of his six alleged co-conspirators.

It was alleged by Nour’s defense that Egyptian State Security had “assisted” the co-defendants with their recollection of events—and in fact, one of the co-defendants, Ayman Isma’il Hassan, recanted his testimony in open court, claiming that he was coerced into his confession.

The State Department offered this comment on December 24, 2005:

The United States is troubled by the Egyptian court decision convicting civil reformer and former presidential candidate Ayman Nour. Mr. Nour's trial has been marred by irregularities and inconsistencies, and has failed to meet the international standards of transparency and respect for rule of law that the Egyptian Government has publicly espoused.

Mr. Nour's detention and sentencing raise serious concerns about the path of political reform and democracy in Egypt, and is inconsistent with the Egyptian Government's professed commitment to increased political openness and dialogue within Egyptian society.

We note reports that Ayman Nour's health appears to be deteriorating, and we urge the Egyptian Government to consider his humanitarian release.

The United States and the international community have been following with concern the Government of Egypt's handling of Ayman Nour's case. We will continue to press for his release.

Nour received a five year sentence and was sent to the Mazra'at Tura Prison.

As it turns out, Hassan, the recanting witness, did not survive the events of the trial and his own five year sentence that followed: it is reported that he was found by his three cellmates hanged in his prison cell when they awoke one morning in September 2007.

I love a good cliffhanger...especially when they are real.

With that in mind, this is where we stop for today—but here’s what you need to know:

Nour’s story, despite the intimidation and imprisonment, is far from over.
The intimidation and imprisonment (courtesy of a Government we strongly support) isn’t over, either.

The next time we meet, there’s a lot more story to tell: the Internet becomes the opposition’s most dangerous weapon, the Government responds with “spontaneous demonstrations” and arson...and we discover that in Mr. Mubarak’s Egypt, bloggers are such a threat to public order that they are now themselves targets for torture.